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International accounts of the Republic of Moldova, 2016 (preliminary data)



International accounts for 2016 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments

 

According to preliminary data, in 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 276.58 million (down by 33.3 percent as compared to 2015), the capital account registered a deficit of US$ 46.71 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 289.99 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -5,979.23 million at the end of 2016, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,594.69 million.

Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova

 

U.M.

2015

QI

2016

QII

2016

QIII

 2016

QIV

2016

2016

Gross domestic product in current prices

MDL million

122,563

27,097

31,434

39,749

36,196

134,477

Gross domestic product in current prices

US$ million

6,514

1,350

1,588

2,009

1,807

6,750

GDP, physical volume indices

%

99.6

100.8

101.8

106.3

106.5

104.1

Exports of goods, physical volume indices

%

101

90

99

121

123

n.a.

Exports of goods, unit value indices

%

83

95

98

96

96

n.a.

Imports of goods, physical volume indices

%

95

104

107

112

111

n.a.

Imports of goods, unit value indices

%

79

88

93

94

99

n.a.

Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)

%

105.1

108.0

105.4

101.8

96.8

n.a.

Period average exchange rate

MDL/USD

18.8161

20.0737

19.7957

19.7896

20.0363

19.9238

Personal remittances / GDP

%

21.7

21.5

22.1

17.6

19.3

19.9

FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP

%

3.6

3.0

0.0

3.4

0.9

1.8

Sources: NBM, NBS

 

Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account (BPM6)

 

2015

QI

2016

QII

 2016

QIII

2016

QIV

2016

2016

Change in share         2016 / 2015

%

p.p.*

Current account / GDP

-6.4

-5.9

-4.8

-4.9

-1.2

-4.1

2.3

 Trade balance / GDP

-30.0

-30.6

-30.3

-23.6

-26.4

-27.3

2.7

    Exports of goods and services / GDP

38.0

39.0

39.0

33.7

42.7

38.4

0.4

    Imports of goods and services / GDP

68.0

69.6

69.3

57.3

69.1

65.8

-2.3

 Primary income balance / GDP

7.0

6.8

8.1

5.2

6.8

6.7

-0.3

    Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:

12.5

11.5

12.2

10.4

10.4

11.0

-1.5

     Compensation of employees / GDP

12.0

11.0

11.7

10.0

10.0

10.6

-1.4

    Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:

5.5

4.7

4.1

5.2

3.6

4.4

-1.1

     Investment income / GDP

4.2

3.4

3.0

4.4

2.6

3.4

-0.8

 Secondary income balance / GDP

16.6

17.9

17.3

13.5

18.3

16.6

-0.1

  Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:

18.8

20.1

19.4

15.2

20.2

18.5

-0.3

    Personal transfers / GDP

11.6

12.3

12.3

9.5

11.0

11.1

-0.5

    Current international cooperation / GDP

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.0

5.0

3.2

0.2

  Secondary income outflow / GDP

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.9

-0.3

Capital account / GDP

0.4

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-0.4

-0.7

-1.1

Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP

-6.0

-6.7

-5.5

-5.8

-1.7

-4.8

1.2

*percentage points

 

Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows, % to GDP

 

2015

QI

2016

QII 2016

QIII 2016

QIV 2016

2016

Change in share         2016 / 2015

%

p.p.*

Financial account

-6.8

-10.8

-4.1

-4.3

0.4

-4.3

2.5

  Direct investment, of which:

-3.5

-2.4

0.3

-3.3

-0.8

-1.6

1.9

    Equity other than reinvestment of earnings

-0.9

-1.0

-0.4

-0.9

-1.1

-0.8

0.1

    Reinvestment of earnings

-1.9

-1.6

-1.1

-2.9

0.2

-1.4

0.5

    Debt instruments

-0.7

0.2

1.7

0.4

0.1

0.6

1.3

  Portfolio investment and financial derivatives

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

  Other investment, of which:

1.4

-7.2

-14.6

-15.0

-4.5

-10.5

-12.0

    Currency and deposits

3.2

-6.3

-10.3

-9.2

3.1

-5.6

-8.8

    Loans

-0.3

1.6

-0.3

-2.8

-5.2

-2.0

-1.7

    Trade credit and advances 

-1.5

-2.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.5

-3.0

-1.5

    Other accounts receivable / payable

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

  Change in reserve assets

-4.7

-1.2

10.2

14.0

5.7

7.9

12.6

Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points

 

Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)

 

UM

31.12.

2015

31.03.

2016

30.06.

2016

30.09.

2016

31.12.

2016

31.12.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%)

Net international investment position

US$ million

-5,587.73

-5,823.93

-5,907.88

-6,051.80

-5,979.23

107.0

Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities

%

38.1

36.1

35.2

35.4

36.2

-1.9 p.p.*

Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities

US$ million

3,466.07

3,492.39

3,501.81

3,579.49

3,581.43

103.3

Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

38.4

38.3

38.4

38.2

38.2

-0.2 p.p.

Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

32.6

32.5

32.2

32.1

32.0

-0.6 p.p.

Stock of reserve assets

US$ million

1,756.81

1,746.33

1,874.60

2,146.72

2,205.93

125.6

Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)

months

4.8

4.9

5.3

6.0

6.0

125.4

*percentage points

 

Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, end of period, US$ million

Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015.

 

Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)

 

UM

31.12.

2015

31.03.

2016

30.06.

2016

30.09.

2016

31.12.

2016

31.12.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%)

Gross external debt

 US$ million

6,381.24

6,436.60

6,438.72

6,609.15

6,594.69

103.3

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt

US$ million

1,702.04

1,708.97

1,704.98

1,776.96

1,778.90

104.5

Long-term external debt

US$ million

4,909.52

4,935.97

4,891.89

4,943.53

4,904.58

99.9

Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt

%

26.7

26.6

26.5

26.9

27.0

0.3 p.p.*

Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt

%

76.9

76.7

76.0

74.8

74.4

-2.6 p.p.

Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations

%

43.3

43.0

42.7

43.4

43.5

0.2 p.p.

Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt

%

119.4

116.4

121.2

128.9

130.5

11.1 p.p.

*percentage points

 

Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:

Balance of payments for 2016 (preliminary data)

International investment position at the end of 2016 (preliminary data)

External debt at the end of 2016 (preliminary data)

 

Time series for balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt according to BPM5 – from 2001, according to BPM6 – from 2009:

Balance of payments (BPM6)

External debt

Balance of payments

International investment position

External debt

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