International accounts for 2017 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments
In 2017, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 616.94 million. The capital account registered a deficit of US$ 30.41 million and the financial account recorded a net capital inflow of US$ 569.77 million. The international investment position amounted to US$ -3,954.33 million in 2017, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,973.70 million
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
|
Gross domestic product in current prices, MDl mil.
|
100,510
|
112,050
|
122,563
|
134,937
|
150,369
|
|
Gross domestic product in current prices, US$ mill.
|
7,983
|
7,981
|
6,514
|
6,773
|
8,132
|
|
GDP, physical volume indices, %
|
109.4
|
104.8
|
99.6
|
104.3
|
104.5
|
|
Period average exchange rate, MDL/USD
|
12.5907
|
14.0388
|
18.8161
|
19.9238
|
18.4902
|
|
Personal remittances / GDP, %
|
25.9
|
24.6
|
22.3
|
20.3
|
19.2
|
|
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP, %
|
3.0
|
4.3
|
3.3
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account (BPM6)
|
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2017 /2016
|
|
|
Contribution
|
|
|
% to GDP
|
p. p.
|
|
Current account
|
-6.1
|
-7.1
|
-7.2
|
-4.2
|
-7.6
|
-3.4
|
|
Trade balance
|
-37.4
|
-36.6
|
-30.7
|
-27.6
|
-27.7
|
-0.1
|
|
Exports of goods and services
|
38.1
|
37.1
|
38.1
|
38.3
|
38.2
|
0.0
|
|
Imports of goods and services
|
75.5
|
73.7
|
68.7
|
65.9
|
66.0
|
0.1
|
|
Primary income balance
|
11.2
|
10.3
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
6.3
|
-0.5
|
|
Primary income inflow, of which:
|
14.6
|
14.0
|
12.5
|
11.0
|
10.9
|
-0.1
|
|
Compensation of employees
|
14.0
|
13.3
|
12.0
|
10.5
|
10.3
|
-0.2
|
|
Primary income outflow, of which:
|
3.4
|
3.7
|
5.6
|
4.2
|
4.6
|
0.4
|
|
Investment income
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
4.4
|
3.2
|
3.6
|
0.4
|
|
Secondary income balance
|
20.0
|
19.2
|
16.6
|
16.6
|
13.8
|
-2.8
|
|
Secondary income inflow, of which:
|
21.7
|
21.0
|
18.8
|
18.4
|
15.6
|
-2.8
|
|
Personal transfers
|
13.4
|
12.7
|
11.6
|
11.1
|
9.8
|
-1.3
|
|
Current international cooperation
|
3.2
|
4.4
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
2.3
|
-0.9
|
|
Secondary income outflow
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
-0.1
|
|
Capital account
|
1.3
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
-0.3
|
-0.4
|
-0.1
|
|
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)
|
-4.8
|
-5.3
|
-6.3
|
-4.5
|
-8.0
|
-3.5
|
*percentage points.
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
|
% to GDP
|
|
Financial account
|
-3.7
|
-6.3
|
-7.0
|
-3.2
|
-7.0
|
|
Direct investment, of which:
|
-2.6
|
-3.8
|
-3.2
|
-1.1
|
-2.5
|
|
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings
|
-1.0
|
-1.1
|
-0.4
|
-0.5
|
-0.4
|
|
Reinvestment of earnings
|
0.0
|
-0.5
|
-1.9
|
-1.3
|
-1.1
|
|
Debt instruments
|
-1.6
|
-2.1
|
-0.9
|
0.8
|
-1.1
|
|
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives
|
0.0
|
-0.1
|
-0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Other investment, of which:
|
-4.6
|
4.3
|
1.0
|
-9.9
|
-11.0
|
|
Currency and deposits
|
-0.5
|
2.3
|
1.2
|
-5.0
|
-4.9
|
|
Loans
|
-1.9
|
0.6
|
-0.4
|
-1.8
|
-1.4
|
|
Trade credit and advances
|
-1.0
|
-3.3
|
0.1
|
-2.6
|
-4.7
|
|
Other accounts receivable / payable
|
-1.2
|
4.6
|
0.1
|
-0.5
|
0.0
|
|
Change in reserve assets
|
3.5
|
-6.7
|
-4.7
|
7.8
|
6.5
|
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM6)
|
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.12.
2016
|
31.12.
2017
|
31.12.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%)
|
|
Net IIP, US$ mill.
|
-3,146.64
|
-2,807.10
|
-2,963.03
|
-3,034.13
|
-3,954.33
|
130.3
|
|
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities, %
|
64.5
|
66.0
|
60.2
|
60.3
|
55.8
|
-4.5 p.p.
|
|
Stock of direct investment, liabilities, US$ mill.
|
3,472.62
|
3,360.86
|
2,980.08
|
3,037.51
|
3,701.74
|
121.9
|
|
Share of FDI in the stock of foreign liabilities, %
|
39.1
|
40.7
|
40.1
|
39.7
|
41.4
|
1.6 p.p.
|
|
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities, %
|
37.6
|
38.3
|
41.2
|
41.1
|
38.2
|
-2.8 p.p.
|
|
Stock of official reserve assets, US$ mill.
|
2,820.63
|
2,156.63
|
1,756.81
|
2,205.93
|
2,803.26
|
127.1
|
|
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly actual imports of goods and services (for 12 months), months
|
5.6
|
4.4
|
4.7
|
5.9
|
6.3
|
105.7
|
Note: p. p. – percentage points
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at period-end, US$ million
Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria are based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015:
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12. 2015
|
31.12.
2016
|
31.12.
2017
|
31.12.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%)
|
|
Gross external debt, US$ mill.
|
6,874.27
|
6,495.79
|
6,104.21
|
6,235.23
|
6,973.70
|
111.8
|
|
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt, US$ mill.
|
1,774.92
|
1,731.05
|
1,702.11
|
1,779.36
|
1,999.63
|
112.4
|
|
Non-guaranteed private debt, US$ mill.
|
5,099.35
|
4,764.74
|
4,402.10
|
4,455.87
|
4,974.07
|
111.6
|
|
Short-term external debt, US$ mill.
|
1,911.50
|
1,541.80
|
1,249.59
|
1,388.59
|
1,747.68
|
125.9
|
|
Long-term external debt, US$ mill.
|
4,962.77
|
4,953.99
|
4,854.62
|
4,846.64
|
5,226.02
|
107.8
|
|
Gross external debt / GDP, %
|
86.1
|
81.4
|
93.7
|
92.1
|
85.8
|
- 6.3 p.p.
|
|
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt, %
|
25.8
|
26.6
|
27.9
|
28.5
|
28.7
|
0.1 p.p.
|
|
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt, %
|
72.2
|
76.3
|
79.5
|
77.7
|
74.9
|
-2.8 p.p.
|
|
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations, %
|
45.8
|
44.9
|
44.2
|
44.7
|
45.4
|
0.7 p.p.
|
|
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt, %
|
147.6
|
139.9
|
140.6
|
158.9
|
160.4
|
1.5 p.p.
|
Note: p. p. – percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
Time series are available starting from:
-
1995 for the balance of payments according to BPM5, 2009 for the balance of payments according to BPM6;
-
1998 for the international investment position according to BPM5, 2012 for the international investment position according to BPM6;
-
2001 for the external debt according to BPM5, 2009 for the external debt according to BPM6.
Interactive database:
Balance of payments (BPM6);
International investment position (BPM6);
External debt (BPM6).
