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International accounts of the Republic of Moldova, Q I 2017 (preliminary data)



          International accounts for Q I 2017 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments

 

According to preliminary data, in Q I 2017, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of 112.77 million (that worsened by 41.5 percent as compared to Q I 2016), the capital account registered a deficit of US$ 11.99 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 59.65 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -6,133.37 million at the end of the first quarter of 2017, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,688.60 million.

Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova

 

UM

2015

2016

2017

Q

I

I

II

III

IV

I

Gross domestic product in current prices

MDL mill.

24,462

27,156

31,533

39,901

36,347

29,670

Gross domestic product in current prices

US$ mill.

1,359

1,353

1,593

2,016

1,814

1,487

GDP, physical volume indices

%

104.8

100.8

101.9

106.5

106.7

103.1

Exports of goods, physical volume indices

%

106

90

99

121

123

128

Exports of goods, unit value indices

%

80

95

98

96

96

99

Imports of goods, physical volume indices

%

101

104

107

112

111

120

Imports of goods, unit value indices

%

79

88

93

94

99

100

Terms of trade

%

101.3

108.0

105.4

101.8

96.8

99.7

Period average exchange rate

MDL/USD

17.9989

20.0737

19.7957

19.7896

20.0363

19.9556

Personal remittances / GDP

%

23.4

21.5

22.0

17.6

19.3

21.5

FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP

%

10.9

3.0

0.0

3.3

0.9

2.8

Sourses: NBM, NBS

 

Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account(BPM6)

 

2015

2016

2017

I 2017 / I 2016

Q

Contribution

I

I

II

III

IV

I

% to GDP

p. p.

Current account

-10.2

-5.9

-4.8

-4.9

-1.2

-7.6

-1.7

    Trade balance

-34.8

-30.6

-30.2

-23.5

-26.3

-31.0

-0.4

        Exports of goods and services

43.9

38.9

38.9

33.6

42.6

44.8

5.9

        Imports of goods and services

78.7

69.5

69.0

57.1

68.8

75.8

6.3

    Primary income balance

7.0

6.8

8.1

5.2

6.8

6.6

-0.2

        Primary income inflow, of which:

13.6

11.5

12.2

10.3

10.4

12.0

0.5

              Compensation of employees

12.9

11.0

11.7

9.9

9.9

11.5

0.6

          Primary income outflow, of which:

6.6

4.7

4.1

5.2

3.5

5.4

0.7

              Investment income

5.3

3.4

3.0

4.4

2.5

4.2

0.7

    Secondary income balance

17.6

17.9

17.3

13.4

18.2

16.8

-1.1

    Secondary income inflow, of which:

20.0

20.0

19.3

15.2

20.1

18.8

-1.2

              Personal transfers

12.6

12.3

12.2

9.5

11.0

11.6

-0.7

              Current international cooperation

3.6

2.9

2.7

2.0

5.0

2.4

-0.6

        Secondary income outflow

2.4

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.8

2.0

-0.1

Capital account

-0.3

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-0.4

-0.8

0.0

Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)

-10.5

-6.6

-5.5

-5.8

-1.6

-8.4

-1.8

*percentage points

 

Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows, % to GDP

 

2015

2016

2017

I 2017 /

IV 2016

Q

Contribution

I

I

II

III

IV

I

% to GDP

p. p.

Financial account

-14.8

-10.8

-4.1

-4.3

0.4

-4.0

-4.4

   Direct investment, of which:

-10.6

-2.4

0.3

-3.3

-0.8

-2.7

-1.9

        Equity other than reinvestment of earnings

-0.8

-1.0

-0.4

-0.9

-1.1

-0.6

0.5

        Reinvestment of earnings

-3.2

-1.6

-1.1

-2.9

0.2

-2.2

-2.4

        Debt instruments

-6.6

0.2

1.7

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

   Portfolio investment and financial derivatives

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

   Other investment, of which:

19.0

-7.2

-14.5

-14.9

-4.5

-3.8

0.7

       Currency and deposits

19.0

-6.2

-10.3

-9.2

3.1

-0.7

-3.8

       Loans

1.8

1.6

-0.3

-2.8

-5.2

-0.3

4.9

       Trade credit and advances 

-1.8

-2.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.5

-2.9

-0.4

      Other accounts receivable / payable

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

   Change in reserve assets

-23.0

-1.1

10.2

14.0

5.7

2.5

-3.1

Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points

 

Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)

 

31.12.

2013

31.12.

2014

31.12.

2015

31.12.

2016

31.03.

2017

31.03.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%)

Net IIP, US$ mill.

-5,346.05

-5,598.53

-5,587.73

-5,979.23

-6,133.37

102.6

Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities, %

43.0

39.9

38.1

36.2

35.7

-0.5 p. p.

Stock of direct investment in domestic economy, US$ mill.

3,620.97

3,613.78

3,466.07

3,581.43

3,664.93

102.3

Share of FDI in the stock of foreign liabilities, %

38.6

38.8

38.4

38.2

38.4

0.2 p. p.

Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities, %

34.5

32.9

32.6

32.0

31.9

-0.5 p. p.

Stock of official reserve assets, US$ mill.

2,820.63

2,156.63

1,756.81

2,205.93

2,256.45

102.3

Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months), months

5.6

4.4

4.8

6.0

5.9

98.2

*percentage points

 

Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at period-end, US$ million

Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: 

 

Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)

 

31.12.

2013

31.12.

2014

31.12.

2015

31.12.

2016

31.03.

2017

31.03.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%)

Gross external debt, US$ mill.

6,674.38

6,570.26

6,381.24

6,594.69

6,688.60

101.4

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt, US$ mill.

1,774.92

1,731.05

1,702.04

1,778.90

1,826.33

102.7

Long-term external debt, US$ mill.

5,003.79

5,012.32

4,909.52

4,904.58

4,939.57

100.7

Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt, %

26.6

26.3

26.7

27.0

27.3

0.3 p. p.

Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt, %

75.0

76.3

76.9

74.4

73.9

-0.5 p. p.

Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations, %

44.9

43.7

43.3

43.4

43.6

0.2 p. p.

Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt, %

168.8

138.4

119.4

130.5

129.0

-1.5 p. p.

Note: p. p. – percentage points


Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:

Time series for balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt according to BPM5 – from 2001, according to BPM6 – from 2009:

Balance of payments (BPM6)

External debt (BPM6)

 

Balance of payments

International investment position

External debt

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