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International accounts of the Republic of Moldova, Q III 2016 (preliminary data)



International accounts of the Republic of Moldova for Q III 2016 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments

 

In Q III 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 97.16 million (down by 17.0% as compared to Q III 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 17.42 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 68.93 million. The international investment position remained net debit totaling US$ -5,956.69 million, while the gross external debt reached US$ 6,510.49 million.

Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova

 

UM

2014

2015

2016

9 months

QIII

QIII

QI

QII

QIII

2014

2015

2016

Gross domestic product in current prices

MDL million

34,215

35,995

27,097

31,434

39,749

81,723

89,052

98,281

Gross domestic product in current prices

US$ million

2,435

1,875

1,350

1,588

2,009

5,961

4,827

4,942

GDP, physical volume indices

%

106.0

96.3

100.8

101.8

106.3

104.7

100.5

103.3

Exports of goods, physical volume indices

%

98

96

90

99

121

 

 

 

Exports of goods, unit value indices

%

95

84

95

98

96

 

 

 

Imports of goods, physical volume indices

%

99

95

104

107

112

 

 

 

Imports of goods, unit value indices

%

97

78

88

93

94

 

 

 

Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)

%

97.9

107.7

108.0

105.4

101.8

 

 

 

Period average exchange rate

MDL/USD

14.0539

19.1982

20.0737

19.7957

19.7896

13.7086

18.4471

19.8860

Personal remittances / GDP

%

23.0

19.5

21.5

22.0

17.6

24.7

22.0

20.1

FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP

%

4.0

-0.9

2.8

-0.2

3.4

4.1

4.3

2.1

Sources: NBM, NBS

 

Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account

 

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

Change in share

QIII

QIII

QI

QII

QIII

9 months

9 months 2016 /
9 months 2015

%

p.p.*

Current account / GDP

-4.3

-6.2

-6.0

-4.5

-4.8

-6.3

-7.9

-5.1

2.8

 Trade balance / GDP

-31.5

-27.9

-30.6

-29.9

-23.8

-35.6

-30.9

-27.6

3.3

  Exports of goods and services / GDP

29.6

31.2

39.0

39.3

33.5

36.2

37.5

36.9

-0.6

  Imports of goods and services / GDP

61.1

59.1

69.6

69.2

57.3

71.8

68.4

64.5

-3.9

 Primary income balance / GDP

9.4

7.5

6.4

8.0

5.3

10.1

6.4

6.5

0.1

  Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:

13.2

11.3

11.5

12.2

10.4

14.3

12.8

11.3

-1.5

   Compensation of employees / GDP

12.6

10.9

11.0

11.7

9.9

13.7

12.2

10.8

-1.6

  Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:

3.8

3.8

5.1

4.2

5.1

4.2

6.4

4.8

-1.6

   Investment income / GDP

3.0

2.8

3.7

3.0

4.3

3.3

5.1

3.7

-1.4

 Secondary income balance / GDP

17.8

14.2

18.2

17.4

13.7

19.1

16.6

16.1

-0.5

  Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:

19.4

16.2

20.3

19.4

15.5

20.9

18.8

18.1

-0.7

   Personal transfers / GDP

12.2

10.3

12.3

12.2

9.5

13.1

11.7

11.1

-0.6

   Current international cooperation / GDP

3.8

2.4

2.9

2.6

2.0

3.8

2.9

2.4

-0.5

  Secondary income outflow / GDP

1.7

2.1

2.2

2.1

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.0

-0.2

Capital account / GDP

0.5

0.5

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

1.0

0.3

-0.8

-1.1

Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP

-3.8

-5.7

-6.8

-5.2

-5.7

-5.3

-7.6

-5.9

1.7

*percentage points

 

Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows

 

2014

2015

2016

2014

2015

2016

Change in share

QIII

QIII

QI

QII

QIII

9 months

9 months 2016 /
9 months 2015

% to GDP

p.p.*

Financial account

-3.3

-4.9

-9.7

-2.6

-3.4

-4.7

-8.7

-4.9

3.8

 Direct investment, of which:

-3.4

0.8

-2.2

0.5

-3.3

-3.8

-4.3

-1.8

2.5

  Equity other than reinvestment of earnings

-0.5

-0.7

-1.0

-0.4

-0.8

-1.9

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

  Reinvestment of earnings

-1.6

-0.8

-1.6

-1.1

-2.9

-1.0

-2.9

-2.0

0.9

  Debt instruments

-1.2

2.4

0.4

2.0

0.4

-0.8

-0.5

0.9

1.4

 Portfolio investment and financial derivatives

 

 

 

 

 

-0.2

-0.1

 

0.1

 Other investment, of which:

0.6

-4.9

-6.3

-13.3

-14.1

0.8

2.3

-11.7

-14.0

  Currency and deposits

1.3

-0.2

-6.3

-10.6

-9.4

1.8

4.6

-8.9

-13.5

  Loans

2.2

-2.3

1.8

-0.2

-2.7

1.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.5

  Trade credit and advances 

-3.0

-2.5

-1.8

-2.5

-2.1

-2.1

-2.2

-2.2

 

  Other accounts receivable / payable

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

 

 Change in reserve assets

-0.4

-0.9

-1.2

10.2

14.0

-1.5

-6.6

8.7

15.3

Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points

 

Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position

 

UM

31.12.

2012

31.12.

2013

31.12.

2014

31.12.

2015

31.03.

2016

30.06.

2016

30.09.

2016

30.09.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%)

Net international investment position

US$ million

-5,085.32

-5,346.05

-5,598.53

-5,552.57

-5,772.44

-5,836.41

-5,956.69

107.3

Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities

%

41.1

43.0

39.9

38.2

36.3

35.4

35.8

-2.4 p.p.*

Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities

US$ million

3,466.67

3,620.97

3,613.78

3,466.07

3,489.31

3,496.92

3,575.20

103.1

Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

40.1

38.6

38.8

38.6

38.5

38.7

38.5

 

Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

35.0

34.5

32.9

32.7

32.6

32.5

32.3

-0.4 p.p.

Stock of reserve assets

US$ million

2,515.00

2,820.63

2,156.63

1,756.81

1,746.33

1,874.60

2,146.72

122.2

Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)

months

5.3

5.6

4.4

4.8

4.9

5.3

6.0

125.0

*percentage points

 

Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, end of period, US$ million

Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities

 

Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)

 

UM

31.12.

2012

31.12.

2013

31.12.

2014

31.12.

2015

31.03.

2016

30.06.

2016

30.09.

2016

30.09.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%)

Gross external debt

US$ million

6,019.84

6,674.38

6,570.26

6,345.43

6,386.93

6,346.07

6,510.49

102.6

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt

US$ million

1,762.57

1,774.92

1,731.05

1,702.04

1,708.97

1,704.98

1,776.96

104.4

Long-term external debt

US$ million

4,698.20

5,003.79

5,012.32

4,909.52

4,931.20

4,880.66

4,931.12

100.4

Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt

%

29.3

26.6

26.3

26.8

26.8

26.9

27.3

0.5 p.p.*

Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt

%

78.0

75.0

76.3

77.4

77.2

76.9

75.7

-1.7 p.p.

Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations

%

48.0

44.9

43.7

43.0

42.9

42.7

43.2

0.2 p.p.

Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt

%

190.3

168.8

138.4

122.3

120.0

127.9

135.9

13.6 p.p.

*percentage points

 

Balance of payments for Q III 2016 (preliminary data)

International investment position at the end of Q III 2016 (preliminary data)

External debt at the end of Q III 2016 (preliminary data)

 

Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt (BPM5) – from 2001, external debt (BPM6) – from 2009:

Balance of payments (BPM6)

External debt

Balance of payments

International investment position

External debt

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