In Q I 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 104.67 million (down by 26.5 percent as compared to January-March 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 11.12 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 69.88 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -5,831.37 million, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,399.63 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
UM |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
||||||
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
||
Gross domestic product in current prices |
MDL million |
21,533 |
26,343 |
34,215 |
29,958 |
24,423 |
28,527 |
35,890 |
33,011 |
27,097 |
Gross domestic product in current prices |
US$ million |
1,608 |
1,926 |
2,435 |
1,995 |
1,357 |
1,573 |
1,869 |
1,658 |
1,350 |
GDP, physical volume indices |
% |
103.8 |
104.4 |
106.0 |
104.4 |
104.8 |
102.5 |
96.3 |
96.7 |
100.8 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
106.0 |
113.0 |
98.0 |
100.0 |
106.0 |
107.0 |
96.0 |
97.0 |
90.0 |
Imports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
100.0 |
98.0 |
99.0 |
104.0 |
101.0 |
96.0 |
95.0 |
91.0 |
104.0 |
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index) |
% |
93.9 |
97.0 |
97.9 |
96.7 |
101.3 |
100.0 |
107.7 |
114.1 |
108.0 |
Period average exchange rate |
MDL/USD |
13.3875 |
13.6771 |
14.0539 |
15.0185 |
17.9989 |
18.1309 |
19.1982 |
19.9112 |
20.0737 |
Personal remittances / GDP |
% |
24.6 |
27.1 |
23.1 |
22.1 |
23.1 |
24.1 |
19.5 |
21.2 |
21.4 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP |
% |
8.8 |
0.4 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
10.7 |
5.0 |
-0.8 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
% change |
||||||
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q I 2016 / Q I 2015 |
|
|
% |
p.p. |
||||||||
Current account / GDP |
-9.4 |
-5.8 |
-4.3 |
-9.9 |
-10.5 |
-8.1 |
-6.3 |
-4.6 |
-7.8 |
2.7 |
Trade balance / GDP |
-38.4 |
-38.1 |
-31.6 |
-40.7 |
-34.8 |
-31.1 |
-27.8 |
-27.9 |
-30.9 |
3.8 |
Exports of goods and services / GDP |
43.9 |
38.0 |
29.4 |
39.1 |
44.0 |
40.2 |
31.4 |
40.2 |
39.1 |
-4.9 |
Imports of goods and services / GDP |
82.3 |
76.1 |
61.0 |
79.7 |
78.8 |
71.3 |
59.1 |
68.1 |
70.1 |
-8.7 |
Primary income balance / GDP |
9.7 |
11.4 |
9.4 |
11.1 |
6.8 |
4.4 |
7.2 |
6.4 |
6.0 |
-0.9 |
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
14.0 |
15.9 |
13.2 |
13.2 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
11.4 |
-2.0 |
Compensation of employees / GDP |
13.3 |
15.4 |
12.7 |
12.5 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
11.0 |
-1.7 |
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which: |
4.3 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
2.1 |
6.6 |
9.6 |
4.1 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
-1.1 |
Investment income / GDP |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
1.1 |
5.2 |
8.2 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
-1.1 |
Secondary income balance / GDP |
19.3 |
20.9 |
17.9 |
19.6 |
17.4 |
18.7 |
14.3 |
16.9 |
17.2 |
-0.2 |
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
21.3 |
22.8 |
19.5 |
21.6 |
19.8 |
21.0 |
16.3 |
19.0 |
19.4 |
-0.4 |
Personal transfers / GDP |
13.4 |
14.1 |
12.3 |
11.5 |
12.4 |
12.8 |
10.3 |
11.5 |
12.3 |
-0.1 |
Current international cooperation / GDP |
3.4 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
6.0 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
-0.5 |
Secondary income outflow / GDP |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
Capital account / GDP |
0.1 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.5 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance) / GDP |
-9.3 |
-3.3 |
-3.8 |
-8.3 |
-10.8 |
-7.5 |
-5.8 |
-4.1 |
-8.6 |
2.3 |
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
% change |
||||||
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q I 2016 / Q IV 2015 |
|
% to GDP |
p.p. |
|||||||||
Financial account |
-12.1 |
-0.2 |
-3.3 |
-14.3 |
-14.6 |
-7.9 |
-4.3 |
-4.2 |
-5.2 |
-1.0 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-8.8 |
0.0 |
-3.4 |
-4.5 |
-10.5 |
-4.9 |
0.8 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
|
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-2.1 |
-3.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
-0.3 |
0.7 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
-1.6 |
1.4 |
-3.1 |
-5.2 |
-0.8 |
-1.2 |
-1.8 |
-0.6 |
Debt instruments |
-5.8 |
3.8 |
-1.2 |
-5.2 |
-6.4 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
-1.4 |
-1.5 |
-0.1 |
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
|
|||
Other investment, of which: |
3.1 |
-0.8 |
0.6 |
12.7 |
19.0 |
-3.3 |
-4.2 |
-1.4 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
Currency and deposits |
1.8 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
19.0 |
-2.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.8 |
-1.7 |
-0.9 |
Loans |
0.1 |
0.1 |
2.2 |
-2.6 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
-1.6 |
-1.2 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
Trade credit and advances |
1.0 |
-3.4 |
-3.0 |
-0.7 |
-1.8 |
-2.2 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
Other accounts payable / receivable |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
12.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
Change in reserve assets |
-6.0 |
0.8 |
-0.4 |
-22.4 |
-23.0 |
0.6 |
-0.9 |
0.8 |
-1.2 |
-2.0 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position
|
UM |
31.12.12 |
31.12.13 |
31.12.14 |
31.12.15 |
31.03.16 |
Q I 2016 / Q IV 2015 (%) |
Net international investment position |
US$ million |
-5,085.32 |
-5,346.05 |
-5,598.09 |
-5,713.43 |
-5,831.37 |
102.1 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
41.1 |
43.0 |
39.9 |
36.9 |
36.2 |
-0.7 p.p. |
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities |
US$ million |
3,466.67 |
3,620.97 |
3,613.78 |
3,538.59 |
3,580.25 |
101.2 |
Share of foreign investment in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
40.1 |
38.6 |
38.8 |
39.1 |
39.2 |
0.1 p.p. |
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
35.0 |
34.5 |
32.9 |
32.6 |
32.3 |
-0.3 p.p. |
Stock of reserve assets |
US$ million |
2,515.00 |
2,820.63 |
2,156.63 |
1,756.81 |
1,746.33 |
99.4 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months) |
months |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
102.2 |
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, end of period, US$ million
Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in „Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals”, April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf [2]
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
UM |
31.12.12 |
31.12.13 |
31.12.14 |
31.12.2015 |
31.03.16 |
Q I 2016 / Q IV 2015 (%) |
Gross external debt |
US$ million |
6,019.84 |
6,674.38 |
6,570.26 |
6,338.39 |
6,399.63 |
101.0 |
Publicly and publicly guaranteed external debt |
US$ million |
1,762.57 |
1,774.93 |
1,731.05 |
1,702.04 |
1,708.97 |
100.4 |
Long-term external debt |
US$ million |
4,698.20 |
5,003.79 |
5,012.32 |
4,904.00 |
4,944.24 |
100.8 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt |
% |
29.3 |
26.6 |
26.3 |
26.9 |
26.7 |
-0.2 p.p. |
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt |
% |
78.0 |
75.0 |
76.3 |
77.4 |
77.3 |
-0.1 p.p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations |
% |
48.0 |
44.9 |
43.7 |
43.1 |
43.1 |
|
Balance of payments for Q I 2016 (preliminary data) [3]
International investment position at the end of Q I 2016 (preliminary data) [4]
External debt at the end of Q I 2016 (preliminary data) [5]
Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, and external debt (BPM5 and BPM6) – from 2001:
Balance of payments (BPM6) [6]
International investment position [8]
External debt [9]