International accounts for Q I 2017 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments [1]
According to preliminary data, in Q I 2017, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of 112.77 million (that worsened by 41.5 percent as compared to Q I 2016), the capital account registered a deficit of US$ 11.99 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 59.65 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -6,133.37 million at the end of the first quarter of 2017, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,688.60 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
UM |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|||
Q |
|||||||
I |
I |
II |
III |
IV |
I |
||
Gross domestic product in current prices |
MDL mill. |
24,462 |
27,156 |
31,533 |
39,901 |
36,347 |
29,670 |
Gross domestic product in current prices |
US$ mill. |
1,359 |
1,353 |
1,593 |
2,016 |
1,814 |
1,487 |
GDP, physical volume indices |
% |
104.8 |
100.8 |
101.9 |
106.5 |
106.7 |
103.1 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
106 |
90 |
99 |
121 |
123 |
128 |
Exports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
80 |
95 |
98 |
96 |
96 |
99 |
Imports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
101 |
104 |
107 |
112 |
111 |
120 |
Imports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
79 |
88 |
93 |
94 |
99 |
100 |
Terms of trade |
% |
101.3 |
108.0 |
105.4 |
101.8 |
96.8 |
99.7 |
Period average exchange rate |
MDL/USD |
17.9989 |
20.0737 |
19.7957 |
19.7896 |
20.0363 |
19.9556 |
Personal remittances / GDP |
% |
23.4 |
21.5 |
22.0 |
17.6 |
19.3 |
21.5 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP |
% |
10.9 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
3.3 |
0.9 |
2.8 |
Sourses: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account(BPM6)
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
I 2017 / I 2016 |
|||
Q |
Contribution |
||||||
I |
I |
II |
III |
IV |
I |
||
% to GDP |
p. p. |
||||||
Current account |
-10.2 |
-5.9 |
-4.8 |
-4.9 |
-1.2 |
-7.6 |
-1.7 |
Trade balance |
-34.8 |
-30.6 |
-30.2 |
-23.5 |
-26.3 |
-31.0 |
-0.4 |
Exports of goods and services |
43.9 |
38.9 |
38.9 |
33.6 |
42.6 |
44.8 |
5.9 |
Imports of goods and services |
78.7 |
69.5 |
69.0 |
57.1 |
68.8 |
75.8 |
6.3 |
Primary income balance |
7.0 |
6.8 |
8.1 |
5.2 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
-0.2 |
Primary income inflow, of which: |
13.6 |
11.5 |
12.2 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
12.0 |
0.5 |
Compensation of employees |
12.9 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
11.5 |
0.6 |
Primary income outflow, of which: |
6.6 |
4.7 |
4.1 |
5.2 |
3.5 |
5.4 |
0.7 |
Investment income |
5.3 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
0.7 |
Secondary income balance |
17.6 |
17.9 |
17.3 |
13.4 |
18.2 |
16.8 |
-1.1 |
Secondary income inflow, of which: |
20.0 |
20.0 |
19.3 |
15.2 |
20.1 |
18.8 |
-1.2 |
Personal transfers |
12.6 |
12.3 |
12.2 |
9.5 |
11.0 |
11.6 |
-0.7 |
Current international cooperation |
3.6 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
2.4 |
-0.6 |
Secondary income outflow |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
-0.1 |
Capital account |
-0.3 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-0.4 |
-0.8 |
0.0 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance) |
-10.5 |
-6.6 |
-5.5 |
-5.8 |
-1.6 |
-8.4 |
-1.8 |
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows, % to GDP
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
I 2017 / IV 2016 |
|||
Q |
Contribution |
||||||
I |
I |
II |
III |
IV |
I |
||
% to GDP |
p. p. |
||||||
Financial account |
-14.8 |
-10.8 |
-4.1 |
-4.3 |
0.4 |
-4.0 |
-4.4 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-10.6 |
-2.4 |
0.3 |
-3.3 |
-0.8 |
-2.7 |
-1.9 |
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
-1.1 |
-0.6 |
0.5 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-3.2 |
-1.6 |
-1.1 |
-2.9 |
0.2 |
-2.2 |
-2.4 |
Debt instruments |
-6.6 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
Other investment, of which: |
19.0 |
-7.2 |
-14.5 |
-14.9 |
-4.5 |
-3.8 |
0.7 |
Currency and deposits |
19.0 |
-6.2 |
-10.3 |
-9.2 |
3.1 |
-0.7 |
-3.8 |
Loans |
1.8 |
1.6 |
-0.3 |
-2.8 |
-5.2 |
-0.3 |
4.9 |
Trade credit and advances |
-1.8 |
-2.6 |
-4.0 |
-3.0 |
-2.5 |
-2.9 |
-0.4 |
Other accounts receivable / payable |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Change in reserve assets |
-23.0 |
-1.1 |
10.2 |
14.0 |
5.7 |
2.5 |
-3.1 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)
|
31.12. 2013 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.12. 2016 |
31.03. 2017 |
31.03.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%) |
Net IIP, US$ mill. |
-5,346.05 |
-5,598.53 |
-5,587.73 |
-5,979.23 |
-6,133.37 |
102.6 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities, % |
43.0 |
39.9 |
38.1 |
36.2 |
35.7 |
-0.5 p. p. |
Stock of direct investment in domestic economy, US$ mill. |
3,620.97 |
3,613.78 |
3,466.07 |
3,581.43 |
3,664.93 |
102.3 |
Share of FDI in the stock of foreign liabilities, % |
38.6 |
38.8 |
38.4 |
38.2 |
38.4 |
0.2 p. p. |
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities, % |
34.5 |
32.9 |
32.6 |
32.0 |
31.9 |
-0.5 p. p. |
Stock of official reserve assets, US$ mill. |
2,820.63 |
2,156.63 |
1,756.81 |
2,205.93 |
2,256.45 |
102.3 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months), months |
5.6 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
98.2 |
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at period-end, US$ million
Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals [2]", April 2015:
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
31.12. 2013 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.12. 2016 |
31.03. 2017 |
31.03.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%) |
Gross external debt, US$ mill. |
6,674.38 |
6,570.26 |
6,381.24 |
6,594.69 |
6,688.60 |
101.4 |
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt, US$ mill. |
1,774.92 |
1,731.05 |
1,702.04 |
1,778.90 |
1,826.33 |
102.7 |
Long-term external debt, US$ mill. |
5,003.79 |
5,012.32 |
4,909.52 |
4,904.58 |
4,939.57 |
100.7 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt, % |
26.6 |
26.3 |
26.7 |
27.0 |
27.3 |
0.3 p. p. |
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt, % |
75.0 |
76.3 |
76.9 |
74.4 |
73.9 |
-0.5 p. p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations, % |
44.9 |
43.7 |
43.3 |
43.4 |
43.6 |
0.2 p. p. |
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt, % |
168.8 |
138.4 |
119.4 |
130.5 |
129.0 |
-1.5 p. p. |
Note: p. p. – percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
- Balance of payments for Q I 2017 (preliminary data) [3]
- International investment position at the end of Q I 2017 (preliminary data) [4]
- External debt at the end of Q I 2017 (preliminary data) [5]
Time series for balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt according to BPM5 – from 2001, according to BPM6 – from 2009:
Balance of payments (BPM6) [6]
International investment position [9]
External debt [10]