International accounts for 2015 (final data) – all analytical comments [1]
In 2015, the current account of the balance of payments of the Republic of Moldova recorded a deficit of US$ 414.84 million (down by 27.1% as compared to 2014), the capital account registered a surplus of US$ 22.88 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 443.72 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -5,654.17 million as of 31.12.2015, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,345.43 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
UM |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
Gross domestic product in current prices |
MDL million |
82,349 |
88,228 |
100,510 |
112,050 |
122,170 |
Gross domestic product in current prices |
US$ million |
7,016 |
7,284 |
7,983 |
7,981 |
6,493 |
GDP, physical volume indices |
% |
106.8 |
99.3 |
109.4 |
104.6 |
99.5 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
134 |
101 |
113 |
102 |
101 |
Exports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
107 |
97 |
98 |
94 |
83 |
Imports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
122 |
101 |
106 |
101 |
95 |
Imports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
110 |
99 |
99 |
96 |
79 |
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index) |
% |
97.3 |
98.0 |
99.0 |
97.9 |
105.1 |
Period average exchange rate |
MDL/USD |
11.7370 |
12.1122 |
12.5907 |
14.0388 |
18.8161 |
Personal remittances / GDP |
% |
24.0 |
25.2 |
25.3 |
24.0 |
21.8 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP |
% |
5.0 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
Surse: BNM, BNS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Change in share 2015 / 2014 |
|
% |
p.p.* |
|||||
Current account / GDP |
-12.1 |
-8.7 |
-6.5 |
-7.1 |
-6.4 |
0.7 |
Trade balance / GDP |
-40.3 |
-40.6 |
-37.5 |
-36.6 |
-30.1 |
6.4 |
Exports of goods and services / GDP |
39.1 |
37.2 |
38.0 |
37.0 |
38.1 |
1.1 |
Imports of goods and services / GDP |
79.3 |
77.8 |
75.5 |
73.6 |
68.3 |
-5.3 |
Primary income balance / GDP |
8.2 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
7.1 |
-3.3 |
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
13.3 |
14.4 |
14.6 |
14.0 |
12.6 |
-1.4 |
Compensation of employees / GDP |
12.9 |
13.9 |
14.0 |
13.3 |
12.1 |
-1.2 |
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which: |
5.1 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
5.5 |
1.9 |
Investment income / GDP |
4.5 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
1.4 |
Secondary income balance / GDP |
19.9 |
20.7 |
20.1 |
19.1 |
16.7 |
-2.4 |
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
21.5 |
22.3 |
21.7 |
21.0 |
18.9 |
-2.1 |
Personal transfers / GDP |
12.9 |
13.4 |
13.4 |
12.7 |
11.7 |
-1.0 |
Current international cooperation / GDP |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
3.0 |
-1.3 |
Secondary income outflow / GDP |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
Capital account / GDP |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
-0.8 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP |
-11.7 |
-8.4 |
-5.7 |
-5.9 |
-6.0 |
-0.1 |
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Change in share |
|
% to GDP |
p.p.* |
|||||
Financial account |
-10.6 |
-6.7 |
-4.6 |
-7.1 |
-6.8 |
0.3 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-4.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.1 |
-3.9 |
-3.5 |
0.4 |
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-1.8 |
-1.7 |
-1.7 |
-1.6 |
-0.9 |
0.7 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-1.2 |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
-1.9 |
-1.5 |
Debt instruments |
-1.5 |
-1.9 |
-1.2 |
-1.9 |
-0.7 |
1.2 |
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
||
Other investment, of which: |
-10.1 |
-9.8 |
-4.8 |
3.8 |
1.4 |
-2.4 |
Currency and deposits |
-3.1 |
-1.7 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
Loans |
-5.2 |
-6.3 |
-2.1 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
Trade credit and advances |
-1.9 |
-1.8 |
-1.7 |
-1.7 |
-1.5 |
0.2 |
Other accounts receivable / payable |
0.2 |
0.1 |
-1.2 |
3.1 |
0.1 |
-3.0 |
Change in reserve assets |
3.9 |
6.8 |
3.5 |
-6.7 |
-4.7 |
2.0 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)
UM |
31.12.2011 |
31.12.2012 |
31.12.2013 |
31.12.2014 |
31.12.2015 |
2015 / 2014 (%) |
|
Net international investment position |
US$ million |
-4,825.09 |
-5,085.32 |
-5,346.05 |
-5,598.53 |
-5,654.17 |
101.0 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
38.4 |
41.1 |
43.0 |
39.9 |
37.1 |
-2.8 p.p.* |
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities |
US$ million |
3,261.06 |
3,466.67 |
3,620.97 |
3,613.78 |
3,466.07 |
95.9 |
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
41.6 |
40.1 |
38.6 |
38.8 |
38.6 |
-0.3 p.p. |
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
32.5 |
35.0 |
34.5 |
32.9 |
32.7 |
-0.2 p.p. |
Stock of reserve assets |
US$ million |
1,965.32 |
2,515.00 |
2,820.63 |
2,156.63 |
1,756.81 |
81.5 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months) |
months |
4.2 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
107.8 |
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at year-end, US$ million
Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf [2]
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
UM |
31.12.2011 |
31.12.2012 |
31.12.2013 |
31.12.2014 |
31.12.2015 |
2015 / 2014 (%) |
|
Gross external debt |
US$ million |
5,359.35 |
6,019.84 |
6,674.38 |
6,570.26 |
6,345.43 |
96.6 |
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt |
US$ million |
1,521.35 |
1,762.57 |
1,774.92 |
1,731.05 |
1,702.04 |
98.3 |
Long-term external debt |
US$ million |
4,073.44 |
4,698.20 |
5,003.79 |
5,012.32 |
4,909.52 |
97.9 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt |
% |
28.4 |
29.3 |
26.6 |
26.3 |
26.8 |
0.5 p.p.* |
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt |
% |
76.0 |
78.0 |
75.0 |
76.3 |
77.4 |
1.1 p.p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations |
% |
47.4 |
48.0 |
44.9 |
43.7 |
43.0 |
-0.7 p.p. |
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt |
% |
152.8 |
190.3 |
168.8 |
138.4 |
122.3 |
-16.1 p.p. |
*percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
Balance of payments for 2015 (final data) [3]
International investment position at the end of 2015 (final data) [4]
External debt at the end of 2015 (final data) [5]
Time series are available starting from 1995 on the balance of payments according to BPM5 and from 2009 – according to BPM6, from 1998 for the international investment position (BPM5 only), from 2001 for the external debt according to BPM5 and from 2009 – according to BPM6:
Balance of payments (BPM6) [6]
International investment position [9]
External debt [10]