International accounts for Q II 2017 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments [1]
In January-June 2017, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 307.22 million (of which US$ 187.17 in quarter II 2017), which worsened by 77.8 percent as compared to January-June 2016. The capital account registered a deficit of US$ 13.16 million (of which US$ 6.47 million in quarter II 2017) and the financial account recorded a net capital inflow of US$ 162.76 million (of which US$ 111.48 million in quarter II 2017). The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit, totaling US$ -3,958.60 million at the end of the quarter II 2017, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,549.23 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|||||
I |
II |
I |
II |
III |
IV |
I |
II |
|
Gross domestic product in current prices, MDl mil. |
24,462 |
28,595 |
27,156 |
31,533 |
39,901 |
36,347 |
29,670 |
34,251 |
Gross domestic product in current prices, US$ mill. |
1,359 |
1,577 |
1,353 |
1,593 |
2,016 |
1,814 |
1,487 |
1,826 |
GDP, physical volume indices, % |
104.8 |
102.5 |
100.8 |
101.9 |
106.5 |
106.7 |
103.1 |
102.5 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices, % |
106 |
107 |
90 |
99 |
121 |
123 |
128 |
105 |
Exports of goods, unit value indices, % |
80 |
79 |
95 |
98 |
96 |
96 |
99 |
97 |
Imports of goods, physical volume indices, % |
101 |
96 |
104 |
107 |
112 |
111 |
120 |
113 |
Imports of goods, unit value indices, % |
79 |
79 |
88 |
93 |
94 |
99 |
100 |
101 |
Terms of trade, % |
101.3 |
100.0 |
108.0 |
105.4 |
101.8 |
96.8 |
99.7 |
96.6 |
Period average exchange rate, MDL/USD |
17.9989 |
18.1309 |
20.0737 |
19.7957 |
19.7896 |
20.0364 |
19.9556 |
18.7525 |
Personal remittances / GDP, % |
24.1 |
24.4 |
21.8 |
22.6 |
18.1 |
19.7 |
22.5 |
21.3 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP, % |
10.0 |
4.7 |
3.1 |
-0.3 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
Sourses: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account(BPM6)
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2016 I-II |
2017 I-II |
I-II 2017 / I-II 2016 |
|||
I |
II |
I |
II |
I |
II |
Contribution |
|||
% to GDP |
p. p. |
||||||||
Current account |
-11.1 |
-9.2 |
-6.8 |
-5.1 |
-8.1 |
-10.2 |
-5.9 |
-9.3 |
-3.4 |
Trade balance |
-35.6 |
-32.0 |
-31.0 |
-30.5 |
-31.3 |
-33.7 |
-30.8 |
-32.7 |
-1.9 |
Exports of goods and services |
43.9 |
40.0 |
38.9 |
38.8 |
44.8 |
36.2 |
39.0 |
40.1 |
1.1 |
Imports of goods and services |
79.5 |
72.0 |
69.9 |
69.3 |
76.1 |
69.9 |
69.8 |
72.9 |
3.0 |
Primary income balance |
7.0 |
4.2 |
6.3 |
8.1 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
0.1 |
Primary income inflow, of which: |
13.6 |
13.9 |
11.4 |
12.2 |
12.3 |
11.9 |
11.9 |
12.1 |
0.2 |
Compensation of employees |
12.9 |
13.4 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
11.8 |
11.3 |
11.4 |
11.6 |
0.2 |
Primary income outflow, of which: |
6.6 |
9.7 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
0.2 |
Investment income |
5.2 |
8.3 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
0.2 |
Secondary income balance |
17.4 |
18.7 |
17.9 |
17.3 |
16.2 |
15.8 |
17.6 |
16.0 |
-1.6 |
Secondary income inflow, of which: |
19.8 |
21.0 |
19.9 |
19.2 |
18.2 |
17.6 |
19.6 |
17.9 |
-1.6 |
Personal transfers |
12.6 |
12.7 |
12.3 |
12.2 |
11.8 |
11.1 |
12.3 |
11.5 |
-0.8 |
Current international cooperation |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
-0.7 |
Secondary income outflow |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
Capital account |
0.3 |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance) |
-10.9 |
-8.2 |
-7.3 |
-5.3 |
-8.5 |
-10.6 |
-6.2 |
-9.7 |
-3.5 |
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows, % to GDP
|
2016 |
2017 |
2016 III-IV |
2017 I-II |
I-II 2017 / III-IV 2016 |
||||
I |
II |
III |
IV |
I |
II |
Contribution |
|||
% to GDP |
p. p. |
||||||||
Financial account |
-11.3 |
-2.0 |
-3.0 |
1.7 |
-3.4 |
-6.1 |
-0.8 |
-4.9 |
-4.1 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-2.5 |
0.6 |
-3.3 |
-1.0 |
-2.4 |
-1.9 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
0.1 |
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
-0.8 |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
-0.7 |
-0.1 |
0.6 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-1.8 |
-1.0 |
-2.9 |
0.4 |
-2.2 |
-0.9 |
-1.3 |
-1.5 |
-0.2 |
Debt instruments |
-0.3 |
1.8 |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other investment, of which: |
-7.6 |
-12.8 |
-13.7 |
-3.0 |
-3.5 |
-9.8 |
-8.6 |
-7.0 |
1.6 |
Currency and deposits |
-6.6 |
-8.5 |
-8.4 |
2.9 |
-1.5 |
-5.1 |
-3.0 |
-3.5 |
-0.5 |
Loans |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-2.7 |
-3.3 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-3.0 |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
Trade credit and advances |
-2.9 |
-3.1 |
-1.7 |
-2.7 |
-1.5 |
-2.8 |
-2.2 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
Other accounts receivable / payable |
0.1 |
-1.1 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
Change in reserve assets |
-1.1 |
10.2 |
14.0 |
5.7 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
10.0 |
4.3 |
-5.8 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)
|
31.12.2014 |
31.12.2015 |
31.12.2016 |
31.03.2017 |
30.06.2017 |
30.06.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%) |
Net IIP, US$ mill. |
-3,324.12 |
-3,478.99 |
-3,548.33 |
-3,643.45 |
-3,958.60 |
111.6 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities, % |
59.7 |
53.2 |
53.6 |
53.4 |
52.2 |
-1.4 p.p. |
Stock of direct investment, liabilities, US$ mill. |
3,391.74 |
3,001.23 |
3,079.32 |
3,167.55 |
3,444.67 |
111.9 |
Share of FDI in the stock of foreign liabilities, % |
41.1 |
40.3 |
40.3 |
40.5 |
41.6 |
1.3 p.p. |
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities, % |
37.9 |
40.9 |
40.5 |
40.2 |
39.3 |
-1.2 p.p. |
Stock of official reserve assets, US$ mill. |
2,156.63 |
1,756.81 |
2,205.93 |
2,256.45 |
2,388.74 |
108.3 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months), months |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
100.3 |
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at period-end, US$ million
Note: STD – short-term debt, OPL – other portfolio liabilities, M2 – broad money, export-export of goods and services. Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals [2]", April 2015:
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
31.12.2014 |
31.12.2015 |
31.12.2016 |
31.03.2017 |
30.06.2017 |
30.06.2017 / 31.12.2016 (%) |
Gross external debt, US$ mill. |
6,495.80 |
6,104.22 |
6,235.24 |
6,327.21 |
6,549.23 |
105.0 |
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt, US$ mill. |
1,731.05 |
1,702.11 |
1,779.36 |
1,826.79 |
1,909.35 |
107.3 |
Long-term external debt, US$ mill. |
4,947.51 |
4,848.15 |
4,839.84 |
4,893.51 |
5,039.25 |
104.1 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt, % |
26.6 |
27.9 |
28.5 |
28.9 |
29.2 |
0.6 p.p. |
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt, % |
76.2 |
79.4 |
77.6 |
77.3 |
76.9 |
-0.7 p.p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations, % |
44.9 |
44.2 |
44.4 |
44.8 |
45.3 |
0.9 p.p. |
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt, % |
139.3 |
139.9 |
158.1 |
157.4 |
158.2 |
0.1 p.p. |
Note: p. p. – percentage points
Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:
- Balance of payments for Quarter II 2017 (preliminary data) [3];
- International investment position at the end of Quarter II 2017 (preliminary data) [4];
- External debt at the end of Quarter II 2017 (preliminary data) [5].
Time series are available starting from:
- 1995 for the balance of payments (BPM5), 2009 for the balance of payments (BPM6);
- 1998 for the international investment position (BPM5), 2012 for the international investment position (BPM6);
- 2001 for the external debt (BPM5), 2009 for the external debt (BPM6).
Balance of payments (BPM6) [6]
International investment position (BPM6) [7]
External debt (BPM6) [8]
Interactive database:
International investment position [10]
External debt [11]