International accounts of the Republic of Moldova for Q III 2016 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments
In Q III 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 97.16 million (down by 17.0% as compared to Q III 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 17.42 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 68.93 million. The international investment position remained net debit totaling US$ -5,956.69 million, while the gross external debt reached US$ 6,510.49 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
|
UM
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
9 months
|
|
QIII
|
QIII
|
QI
|
QII
|
QIII
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
MDL million
|
34,215
|
35,995
|
27,097
|
31,434
|
39,749
|
81,723
|
89,052
|
98,281
|
|
Gross domestic product in current prices
|
US$ million
|
2,435
|
1,875
|
1,350
|
1,588
|
2,009
|
5,961
|
4,827
|
4,942
|
|
GDP, physical volume indices
|
%
|
106.0
|
96.3
|
100.8
|
101.8
|
106.3
|
104.7
|
100.5
|
103.3
|
|
Exports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
98
|
96
|
90
|
99
|
121
|
|
|
|
|
Exports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
95
|
84
|
95
|
98
|
96
|
|
|
|
|
Imports of goods, physical volume indices
|
%
|
99
|
95
|
104
|
107
|
112
|
|
|
|
|
Imports of goods, unit value indices
|
%
|
97
|
78
|
88
|
93
|
94
|
|
|
|
|
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)
|
%
|
97.9
|
107.7
|
108.0
|
105.4
|
101.8
|
|
|
|
|
Period average exchange rate
|
MDL/USD
|
14.0539
|
19.1982
|
20.0737
|
19.7957
|
19.7896
|
13.7086
|
18.4471
|
19.8860
|
|
Personal remittances / GDP
|
%
|
23.0
|
19.5
|
21.5
|
22.0
|
17.6
|
24.7
|
22.0
|
20.1
|
|
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP
|
%
|
4.0
|
-0.9
|
2.8
|
-0.2
|
3.4
|
4.1
|
4.3
|
2.1
|
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
|
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
Change in share
|
|
QIII
|
QIII
|
QI
|
QII
|
QIII
|
9 months
|
9 months 2016 /
9 months 2015
|
|
%
|
p.p.*
|
|
Current account / GDP
|
-4.3
|
-6.2
|
-6.0
|
-4.5
|
-4.8
|
-6.3
|
-7.9
|
-5.1
|
2.8
|
|
Trade balance / GDP
|
-31.5
|
-27.9
|
-30.6
|
-29.9
|
-23.8
|
-35.6
|
-30.9
|
-27.6
|
3.3
|
|
Exports of goods and services / GDP
|
29.6
|
31.2
|
39.0
|
39.3
|
33.5
|
36.2
|
37.5
|
36.9
|
-0.6
|
|
Imports of goods and services / GDP
|
61.1
|
59.1
|
69.6
|
69.2
|
57.3
|
71.8
|
68.4
|
64.5
|
-3.9
|
|
Primary income balance / GDP
|
9.4
|
7.5
|
6.4
|
8.0
|
5.3
|
10.1
|
6.4
|
6.5
|
0.1
|
|
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:
|
13.2
|
11.3
|
11.5
|
12.2
|
10.4
|
14.3
|
12.8
|
11.3
|
-1.5
|
|
Compensation of employees / GDP
|
12.6
|
10.9
|
11.0
|
11.7
|
9.9
|
13.7
|
12.2
|
10.8
|
-1.6
|
|
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
5.1
|
4.2
|
5.1
|
4.2
|
6.4
|
4.8
|
-1.6
|
|
Investment income / GDP
|
3.0
|
2.8
|
3.7
|
3.0
|
4.3
|
3.3
|
5.1
|
3.7
|
-1.4
|
|
Secondary income balance / GDP
|
17.8
|
14.2
|
18.2
|
17.4
|
13.7
|
19.1
|
16.6
|
16.1
|
-0.5
|
|
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:
|
19.4
|
16.2
|
20.3
|
19.4
|
15.5
|
20.9
|
18.8
|
18.1
|
-0.7
|
|
Personal transfers / GDP
|
12.2
|
10.3
|
12.3
|
12.2
|
9.5
|
13.1
|
11.7
|
11.1
|
-0.6
|
|
Current international cooperation / GDP
|
3.8
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
2.6
|
2.0
|
3.8
|
2.9
|
2.4
|
-0.5
|
|
Secondary income outflow / GDP
|
1.7
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
-0.2
|
|
Capital account / GDP
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
-0.8
|
-0.7
|
-0.9
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
-0.8
|
-1.1
|
|
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP
|
-3.8
|
-5.7
|
-6.8
|
-5.2
|
-5.7
|
-5.3
|
-7.6
|
-5.9
|
1.7
|
*percentage points
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
Change in share
|
|
QIII
|
QIII
|
QI
|
QII
|
QIII
|
9 months
|
9 months 2016 /
9 months 2015
|
|
% to GDP
|
p.p.*
|
|
Financial account
|
-3.3
|
-4.9
|
-9.7
|
-2.6
|
-3.4
|
-4.7
|
-8.7
|
-4.9
|
3.8
|
|
Direct investment, of which:
|
-3.4
|
0.8
|
-2.2
|
0.5
|
-3.3
|
-3.8
|
-4.3
|
-1.8
|
2.5
|
|
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings
|
-0.5
|
-0.7
|
-1.0
|
-0.4
|
-0.8
|
-1.9
|
-0.8
|
-0.7
|
0.1
|
|
Reinvestment of earnings
|
-1.6
|
-0.8
|
-1.6
|
-1.1
|
-2.9
|
-1.0
|
-2.9
|
-2.0
|
0.9
|
|
Debt instruments
|
-1.2
|
2.4
|
0.4
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
-0.8
|
-0.5
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
|
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.2
|
-0.1
|
|
0.1
|
|
Other investment, of which:
|
0.6
|
-4.9
|
-6.3
|
-13.3
|
-14.1
|
0.8
|
2.3
|
-11.7
|
-14.0
|
|
Currency and deposits
|
1.3
|
-0.2
|
-6.3
|
-10.6
|
-9.4
|
1.8
|
4.6
|
-8.9
|
-13.5
|
|
Loans
|
2.2
|
-2.3
|
1.8
|
-0.2
|
-2.7
|
1.0
|
-0.2
|
-0.6
|
-0.5
|
|
Trade credit and advances
|
-3.0
|
-2.5
|
-1.8
|
-2.5
|
-2.1
|
-2.1
|
-2.2
|
-2.2
|
|
|
Other accounts receivable / payable
|
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
|
|
Change in reserve assets
|
-0.4
|
-0.9
|
-1.2
|
10.2
|
14.0
|
-1.5
|
-6.6
|
8.7
|
15.3
|
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position
|
|
UM
|
31.12.
2012
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.03.
2016
|
30.06.
2016
|
30.09.
2016
|
30.09.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%)
|
|
Net international investment position
|
US$ million
|
-5,085.32
|
-5,346.05
|
-5,598.53
|
-5,552.57
|
-5,772.44
|
-5,836.41
|
-5,956.69
|
107.3
|
|
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
41.1
|
43.0
|
39.9
|
38.2
|
36.3
|
35.4
|
35.8
|
-2.4 p.p.*
|
|
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities
|
US$ million
|
3,466.67
|
3,620.97
|
3,613.78
|
3,466.07
|
3,489.31
|
3,496.92
|
3,575.20
|
103.1
|
|
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
40.1
|
38.6
|
38.8
|
38.6
|
38.5
|
38.7
|
38.5
|
|
|
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities
|
%
|
35.0
|
34.5
|
32.9
|
32.7
|
32.6
|
32.5
|
32.3
|
-0.4 p.p.
|
|
Stock of reserve assets
|
US$ million
|
2,515.00
|
2,820.63
|
2,156.63
|
1,756.81
|
1,746.33
|
1,874.60
|
2,146.72
|
122.2
|
|
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)
|
months
|
5.3
|
5.6
|
4.4
|
4.8
|
4.9
|
5.3
|
6.0
|
125.0
|
*percentage points
Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, end of period, US$ million
Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
|
UM
|
31.12.
2012
|
31.12.
2013
|
31.12.
2014
|
31.12.
2015
|
31.03.
2016
|
30.06.
2016
|
30.09.
2016
|
30.09.2016 / 31.12.2015 (%)
|
|
Gross external debt
|
US$ million
|
6,019.84
|
6,674.38
|
6,570.26
|
6,345.43
|
6,386.93
|
6,346.07
|
6,510.49
|
102.6
|
|
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt
|
US$ million
|
1,762.57
|
1,774.92
|
1,731.05
|
1,702.04
|
1,708.97
|
1,704.98
|
1,776.96
|
104.4
|
|
Long-term external debt
|
US$ million
|
4,698.20
|
5,003.79
|
5,012.32
|
4,909.52
|
4,931.20
|
4,880.66
|
4,931.12
|
100.4
|
|
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt
|
%
|
29.3
|
26.6
|
26.3
|
26.8
|
26.8
|
26.9
|
27.3
|
0.5 p.p.*
|
|
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt
|
%
|
78.0
|
75.0
|
76.3
|
77.4
|
77.2
|
76.9
|
75.7
|
-1.7 p.p.
|
|
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations
|
%
|
48.0
|
44.9
|
43.7
|
43.0
|
42.9
|
42.7
|
43.2
|
0.2 p.p.
|
|
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt
|
%
|
190.3
|
168.8
|
138.4
|
122.3
|
120.0
|
127.9
|
135.9
|
13.6 p.p.
|
*percentage points
Balance of payments for Q III 2016 (preliminary data)
International investment position at the end of Q III 2016 (preliminary data)
External debt at the end of Q III 2016 (preliminary data)
Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt (BPM5) – from 2001, external debt (BPM6) – from 2009:
Balance of payments (BPM6)
External debt
Balance of payments
International investment position
External debt
