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International accounts of the Republic of Moldova, 2015 (final data)



International accounts for 2015 (final data) – all analytical comments

 

In 2015, the current account of the balance of payments of the Republic of Moldova recorded a deficit of US$ 414.84 million (down by 27.1% as compared to 2014), the capital account registered a surplus of US$ 22.88 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 443.72 million. The international investment position of the Republic of Moldova remained net debit totaling US$ -5,654.17 million as of 31.12.2015, while the gross external debt of the Republic of Moldova reached US$ 6,345.43 million.

 

Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova

 

UM

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Gross domestic product in current prices

MDL million

82,349

88,228

100,510

112,050

122,170

Gross domestic product in current prices

US$ million

7,016

7,284

7,983

7,981

6,493

GDP, physical volume indices

%

106.8

99.3

109.4

104.6

99.5

Exports of goods, physical volume indices

%

134

101

113

102

101

Exports of goods, unit value indices

%

107

97

98

94

83

Imports of goods, physical volume indices

%

122

101

106

101

95

Imports of goods, unit value indices

%

110

99

99

96

79

Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)

%

97.3

98.0

99.0

97.9

105.1

Period average exchange rate

MDL/USD

11.7370

12.1122

12.5907

14.0388

18.8161

Personal remittances / GDP

%

24.0

25.2

25.3

24.0

21.8

FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP

%

5.0

3.9

3.6

4.4

3.6

Surse: BNM, BNS

 

Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account

 

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Change in share

2015 / 2014

%

p.p.*

Current account / GDP

-12.1

-8.7

-6.5

-7.1

-6.4

0.7

Trade balance / GDP

-40.3

-40.6

-37.5

-36.6

-30.1

6.4

Exports of goods and services / GDP

39.1

37.2

38.0

37.0

38.1

1.1

Imports of goods and services / GDP

79.3

77.8

75.5

73.6

68.3

-5.3

Primary income balance / GDP

8.2

11.2

10.9

10.3

7.1

-3.3

Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:

13.3

14.4

14.6

14.0

12.6

-1.4

Compensation of employees / GDP

12.9

13.9

14.0

13.3

12.1

-1.2

Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:

5.1

3.2

3.6

3.7

5.5

1.9

Investment income / GDP

4.5

2.5

3.1

2.8

4.2

1.4

Secondary income balance / GDP

19.9

20.7

20.1

19.1

16.7

-2.4

Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:

21.5

22.3

21.7

21.0

18.9

-2.1

Personal transfers / GDP

12.9

13.4

13.4

12.7

11.7

-1.0

Current international cooperation / GDP

3.4

3.5

3.2

4.3

3.0

-1.3

Secondary income outflow / GDP

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.2

0.3

Capital account / GDP

0.5

0.3

0.7

1.2

0.4

-0.8

Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP

-11.7

-8.4

-5.7

-5.9

-6.0

-0.1

*percentage points

 

Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows

 

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Change in share
2015 / 2014

% to GDP

p.p.*

Financial account

-10.6

-6.7

-4.6

-7.1

-6.8

0.3

Direct investment, of which:

-4.5

-3.5

-3.1

-3.9

-3.5

0.4

Equity other than reinvestment of earnings

-1.8

-1.7

-1.7

-1.6

-0.9

0.7

Reinvestment of earnings

-1.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-1.9

-1.5

Debt instruments

-1.5

-1.9

-1.2

-1.9

-0.7

1.2

Portfolio investment and financial derivatives

 

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

 

0.2

Other investment, of which:

-10.1

-9.8

-4.8

3.8

1.4

-2.4

Currency and deposits

-3.1

-1.7

0.2

2.3

3.2

0.9

Loans

-5.2

-6.3

-2.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

Trade credit and advances 

-1.9

-1.8

-1.7

-1.7

-1.5

0.2

Other accounts receivable / payable

0.2

0.1

-1.2

3.1

0.1

-3.0

Change in reserve assets

3.9

6.8

3.5

-6.7

-4.7

2.0

Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
*percentage points

 

Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position (BPM5)

 

UM

31.12.2011

31.12.2012

31.12.2013

31.12.2014

31.12.2015

2015 / 2014

(%)

Net international investment position

US$ million

-4,825.09

-5,085.32

-5,346.05

-5,598.53

-5,654.17

101.0

Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities

%

38.4

41.1

43.0

39.9

37.1

-2.8 p.p.*

Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities

US$ million

3,261.06

3,466.67

3,620.97

3,613.78

3,466.07

95.9

Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

41.6

40.1

38.6

38.8

38.6

-0.3 p.p.

Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

32.5

35.0

34.5

32.9

32.7

-0.2 p.p.

Stock of reserve assets

US$ million

1,965.32

2,515.00

2,820.63

2,156.63

1,756.81

81.5

Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)

months

4.2

5.3

5.6

4.4

4.8

107.8

 

Chart 1. Indices of reserve assets adequacy, at year-end, US$ million

Note: Criteria based on the IMF recommendations specified in “Assessing Reserve Adequacy - Specific Proposals", April 2015: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/121914.pdf
*M2 – broad money; STD – short-term debt; OPL – other portfolio liabilities

 

Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)

 

UM

31.12.2011

31.12.2012

31.12.2013

31.12.2014

31.12.2015

2015 / 2014

(%)

Gross external debt

US$ million

5,359.35

6,019.84

6,674.38

6,570.26

6,345.43

96.6

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt

US$ million

1,521.35

1,762.57

1,774.92

1,731.05

1,702.04

98.3

Long-term external debt

US$ million

4,073.44

4,698.20

5,003.79

5,012.32

4,909.52

97.9

Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt

%

28.4

29.3

26.6

26.3

26.8

0.5 p.p.*

Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt

%

76.0

78.0

75.0

76.3

77.4

1.1 p.p.

Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations

%

47.4

48.0

44.9

43.7

43.0

-0.7 p.p.

Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt

%

152.8

190.3

168.8

138.4

122.3

-16.1 p.p.

*percentage points

 

Details on international accounts evolution (balance of payments, international investment position and external debt) can be found in the analytical materials published on the official website of NBM:

Balance of payments for 2015 (final data)

International investment position at the end of 2015 (final data)

External debt at the end of 2015 (final data)

 

Time series are available starting from 1995 on the balance of payments according to BPM5 and from 2009 – according to BPM6, from 1998 for the international investment position (BPM5 only), from 2001 for the external debt according to BPM5 and from 2009 – according to BPM6:

Balance of payments (BPM6)

External debt (BPM6)

Balance of payments

International investment position

External debt

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