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International accounts of the Republic of Moldova, Q II 2016 (preliminary data)



International accounts of the Republic of Moldova for Q II 2016 (preliminary data) – all analytical comments

In Q II 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 92.21 million (down by 27.4 percent as compared to April-June 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 11.76 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 49.56 million. The international investment position remained net debit totaling US$ -5,805.60 million, while the gross external reached US$ 6,389.72 million.

Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova

 

UM

2014

2015

2016

Q I

Q II

Q III

Q IV

Q I

Q II

Q III

Q IV

Q I

Q II

Gross domestic product in current prices

MDL million

21,533

26,343

34,215

29,958

24,462

28,595

35,995

33,117

27,097

31,434

Gross domestic product in current prices

US$ million

1,608

1,926

2,435

1,995

1,359

1,577

1,875

1,663

1,350

1,588

GDP, physical volume indices

%

103.8

104.4

106.0

104.4

104.8

102.5

96.3

96.7

100.8

101.8

Exports of goods, physical volume indices

%

106

113

98

100

106

107

96

97

90

99

Exports of goods, unit value indices

%

92

97

95

89

80

79

84

89

95

98

Imports of goods, physical volume indices

%

100

98

99

104

101

96

95

91

104

107

Imports of goods, unit value indices

%

98

100

97

92

79

79

78

78

88

93

Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index)

%

93.9

97.0

97.9

96.7

101.3

100.0

107.7

114.1

108.0

105.4

Period average exchange rate

MDL/

USD

13.3875

13.6771

14.0539

15.0185

17.9989

18.1309

19.1982

19.9112

20.0737

19.7957

Personal remittances / GDP

%

24.6

27.0

23.0

22.0

23.4

23.9

19.5

21.3

21.5

21.3

FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP

%

8.8

0.4

4.0

5.3

10.9

4.9

-0.9

1.5

2.9

0.2

Sources: NBM, NBS

 

Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account

 

2015

2016

Sem. I 2015

Sem. I 2016

Change in share

Q I

Q II

Q III

Q IV

Q I

Q II

Q II 2016 /

Q Ii 2015

%

p. p.

Current account / GDP

-10.2

-8.1

-6.6

-1.9

-7.0

-5.8

-9.0

-6.4

2.3

Trade balance / GDP

-34.8

-31.3

-27.9

-28.1

-30.6

-30.1

-32.9

-30.4

1.2

Exports of goods and services / GDP

43.9

40.0

31.2

39.9

39.1

39.2

41.8

39.2

-0.8

Imports of goods and services / GDP

78.7

71.3

59.1

68.0

69.7

69.3

74.7

69.5

-2.0

Primary income balance / GDP

7.0

4.6

7.1

9.0

6.4

7.5

5.7

7.0

2.9

Primary income inflow / GDP, of which:

13.6

13.9

11.3

12.0

11.5

11.8

13.8

11.7

-2.1

Compensation of employees / GDP

12.9

13.4

10.9

11.6

11.0

11.3

13.1

11.2

-2.1

Primary income outflow / GDP, of which:

6.6

9.3

4.2

3.0

5.1

4.4

8.1

4.7

-4.9

Investment income / GDP

5.3

7.9

3.1

1.7

3.8

3.2

6.7

3.5

-4.7

Secondary income balance / GDP

17.6

18.7

14.2

17.1

17.2

16.8

18.2

17.0

-1.8

Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which:

20.0

21.0

16.2

19.3

19.4

18.9

20.5

19.1

-2.1

Personal transfers / GDP

12.6

12.7

10.3

11.6

12.3

11.8

12.6

12.0

-0.9

Current international cooperation / GDP

3.6

3.0

2.4

3.2

3.0

2.5

3.3

2.7

-0.5

Secondary income outflow / GDP

2.4

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.1

-0.3

Capital account / GDP

-0.3

0.6

0.5

0.5

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

-0.8

-1.3

Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP

-10.5

-7.5

-6.0

-1.4

-7.8

-6.5

-8.9

-7.1

1.0

 

Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows

 

2015

2016

Sem. I 2015

Sem. I 2016

Change in share

Q I

Q II

Q III

Q IV

Q I

Q II

Q II 2016 /

Q II 2015

% to GDP

p. p.

Financial account

-14.8

-7.9

-4.9

-1.5

-3.8

-3.1

-11.1

-3.4

4.8

Direct investment, of which:

-10.6

-4.9

0.8

-1.3

-2.3

0.4

-7.5

-0.9

5.3

Equity other than reinvestment of earnings

-0.8

-1.0

-0.7

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.9

-0.5

0.6

Reinvestment of earnings

-3.2

-5.2

-0.8

1.0

-1.6

-1.1

-4.2

-1.3

4.1

Debt instruments

-6.6

1.3

2.4

-1.4

 

1.8

-2.4

1.0

0.5

Portfolio investment and financial derivatives

-0.1

-0.1

 

 

 

 

-0.1

 

0.1

Other investment, of which:

19.0

-3.5

-4.9

-1.0

-0.3

-13.7

6.9

-7.5

-10.2

Currency and deposits

19.0

-2.1

-0.2

-0.8

-1.7

-13.6

7.7

-8.1

-11.6

Loans

1.8

0.7

-2.3

-0.8

2.0

-0.4

1.2

0.7

-1.1

Trade credit and advances 

-1.8

-2.2

-2.5

0.5

-0.7

0.3

-2.0

-0.1

2.5

Other accounts payable / receivable

0.1

 

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Change in reserve assets

-23.0

0.6

-0.9

0.8

-1.2

10.2

-10.3

5.0

9.6

Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow

 

Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position

 

UM

31.12.

2012

31.12.

2013

31.12.

2014

31.12.

2015

31.03.

2016

30.06.

2016

Q II 2016/ Q I 2016 (%)

Net international investment position

US$ million

-5,085.32

-5,346.05

-5,598.11

-5,653.75

-5,752.81

-5,805.60

100.9

Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities

%

41.1

43.0

39.9

37.1

36.6

36.0

-0.6 p.p.

Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities

US$ million

3,466.67

3,620.97

3,613.78

3,466.07

3,490.40

3,501.26

100.3

Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

40.1

38.6

38.8

38.6

38.5

38.6

0.2 p.p.

Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities

%

35.0

34.5

32.9

32.7

32.5

32.4

-0.1 p.p.

Stock of reserve assets

US$ million

2,515.00

2,820.63

2,156.63

1,756.81

1,746.33

1,874.60

107.3

Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months)

months

5.3

5.6

4.4

4.8

4.9

5.3

108.0

 

Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)

 

UM

31.12.

2012

31.12.

2013

31.12.

2014

31.12.

2015

31.03.

2016

30.06.

2016

Q II 2016/ Q I 2016 (%)

Gross external debt

US$ million

6,019.84

6,674.38

6,570.26

6,345.43

6,407.99

6,389.72

99.7

Public and publicly guaranteed external debt

US$ million

1,762.57

1,774.93

1,731.05

1,702.04

1,708.97

1,704.99

99.8

Long-term external debt

US$ million

4,698.20

5,003.79

5,012.32

4,909.52

4,934.76

4,894.53

99.2

Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt

%

29.3

26.6

26.3

26.8

26.7

26.7

 

Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt

%

78.0

75.0

76.3

77.4

77.0

76.6

-0.4 p.p.

Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations

%

48.0

44.9

43.7

43.0

42.9

42.6

-0.3 p.p.

Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt

%

190.3

168.8

138.4

122.3

118.5

125.4

6.9 p.p.

Balance of payments for Q II 2016 (preliminary data)

International investment position at the end of Q II 2016 (preliminary data) 

External debt at the end of Q II 2016 (preliminary data)

 

Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt (BPM5) – from 2001, external debt (BPM6) – from 2009:

Balance of payments (BPM6)

External debt

Balance of payments

International investment position

External debt

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