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In Q II 2016, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 92.21 million (down by 27.4 percent as compared to April-June 2015), the capital account registered a negative balance of US$ 11.76 million and the financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 49.56 million. The international investment position remained net debit totaling US$ -5,805.60 million, while the gross external reached US$ 6,389.72 million.
Table 1. Main macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova
|
UM |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
|||||||
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
||
Gross domestic product in current prices |
MDL million |
21,533 |
26,343 |
34,215 |
29,958 |
24,462 |
28,595 |
35,995 |
33,117 |
27,097 |
31,434 |
Gross domestic product in current prices |
US$ million |
1,608 |
1,926 |
2,435 |
1,995 |
1,359 |
1,577 |
1,875 |
1,663 |
1,350 |
1,588 |
GDP, physical volume indices |
% |
103.8 |
104.4 |
106.0 |
104.4 |
104.8 |
102.5 |
96.3 |
96.7 |
100.8 |
101.8 |
Exports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
106 |
113 |
98 |
100 |
106 |
107 |
96 |
97 |
90 |
99 |
Exports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
92 |
97 |
95 |
89 |
80 |
79 |
84 |
89 |
95 |
98 |
Imports of goods, physical volume indices |
% |
100 |
98 |
99 |
104 |
101 |
96 |
95 |
91 |
104 |
107 |
Imports of goods, unit value indices |
% |
98 |
100 |
97 |
92 |
79 |
79 |
78 |
78 |
88 |
93 |
Terms of trade (export unit value index / import unit value index) |
% |
93.9 |
97.0 |
97.9 |
96.7 |
101.3 |
100.0 |
107.7 |
114.1 |
108.0 |
105.4 |
Period average exchange rate |
MDL/ USD |
13.3875 |
13.6771 |
14.0539 |
15.0185 |
17.9989 |
18.1309 |
19.1982 |
19.9112 |
20.0737 |
19.7957 |
Personal remittances / GDP |
% |
24.6 |
27.0 |
23.0 |
22.0 |
23.4 |
23.9 |
19.5 |
21.3 |
21.5 |
21.3 |
FDI flows (net incurrence of liabilities) / GDP |
% |
8.8 |
0.4 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
10.9 |
4.9 |
-0.9 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
0.2 |
Sources: NBM, NBS
Table 2. Contribution of the main components to the evolution of the BOP current account
|
2015 |
2016 |
Sem. I 2015 |
Sem. I 2016 |
Change in share |
||||
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
Q II 2016 / Q Ii 2015 |
|||
% |
p. p. |
||||||||
Current account / GDP |
-10.2 |
-8.1 |
-6.6 |
-1.9 |
-7.0 |
-5.8 |
-9.0 |
-6.4 |
2.3 |
Trade balance / GDP |
-34.8 |
-31.3 |
-27.9 |
-28.1 |
-30.6 |
-30.1 |
-32.9 |
-30.4 |
1.2 |
Exports of goods and services / GDP |
43.9 |
40.0 |
31.2 |
39.9 |
39.1 |
39.2 |
41.8 |
39.2 |
-0.8 |
Imports of goods and services / GDP |
78.7 |
71.3 |
59.1 |
68.0 |
69.7 |
69.3 |
74.7 |
69.5 |
-2.0 |
Primary income balance / GDP |
7.0 |
4.6 |
7.1 |
9.0 |
6.4 |
7.5 |
5.7 |
7.0 |
2.9 |
Primary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
13.6 |
13.9 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
11.8 |
13.8 |
11.7 |
-2.1 |
Compensation of employees / GDP |
12.9 |
13.4 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
11.0 |
11.3 |
13.1 |
11.2 |
-2.1 |
Primary income outflow / GDP, of which: |
6.6 |
9.3 |
4.2 |
3.0 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
8.1 |
4.7 |
-4.9 |
Investment income / GDP |
5.3 |
7.9 |
3.1 |
1.7 |
3.8 |
3.2 |
6.7 |
3.5 |
-4.7 |
Secondary income balance / GDP |
17.6 |
18.7 |
14.2 |
17.1 |
17.2 |
16.8 |
18.2 |
17.0 |
-1.8 |
Secondary income inflow / GDP, of which: |
20.0 |
21.0 |
16.2 |
19.3 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
20.5 |
19.1 |
-2.1 |
Personal transfers / GDP |
12.6 |
12.7 |
10.3 |
11.6 |
12.3 |
11.8 |
12.6 |
12.0 |
-0.9 |
Current international cooperation / GDP |
3.6 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
-0.5 |
Secondary income outflow / GDP |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
-0.3 |
Capital account / GDP |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
-0.8 |
-1.3 |
Net borrowing (current and capital account balance)/ GDP |
-10.5 |
-7.5 |
-6.0 |
-1.4 |
-7.8 |
-6.5 |
-8.9 |
-7.1 |
1.0 |
Table 3. Sources of coverage for the net borrowing, net financial flows
|
2015 |
2016 |
Sem. I 2015 |
Sem. I 2016 |
Change in share |
||||
Q I |
Q II |
Q III |
Q IV |
Q I |
Q II |
Q II 2016 / Q II 2015 |
|||
% to GDP |
p. p. |
||||||||
Financial account |
-14.8 |
-7.9 |
-4.9 |
-1.5 |
-3.8 |
-3.1 |
-11.1 |
-3.4 |
4.8 |
Direct investment, of which: |
-10.6 |
-4.9 |
0.8 |
-1.3 |
-2.3 |
0.4 |
-7.5 |
-0.9 |
5.3 |
Equity other than reinvestment of earnings |
-0.8 |
-1.0 |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
0.6 |
Reinvestment of earnings |
-3.2 |
-5.2 |
-0.8 |
1.0 |
-1.6 |
-1.1 |
-4.2 |
-1.3 |
4.1 |
Debt instruments |
-6.6 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
-1.4 |
1.8 |
-2.4 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
|
Portfolio investment and financial derivatives |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
|
|
|
|
-0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Other investment, of which: |
19.0 |
-3.5 |
-4.9 |
-1.0 |
-0.3 |
-13.7 |
6.9 |
-7.5 |
-10.2 |
Currency and deposits |
19.0 |
-2.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.8 |
-1.7 |
-13.6 |
7.7 |
-8.1 |
-11.6 |
Loans |
1.8 |
0.7 |
-2.3 |
-0.8 |
2.0 |
-0.4 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
Trade credit and advances |
-1.8 |
-2.2 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
-0.7 |
0.3 |
-2.0 |
-0.1 |
2.5 |
Other accounts payable / receivable |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
Change in reserve assets |
-23.0 |
0.6 |
-0.9 |
0.8 |
-1.2 |
10.2 |
-10.3 |
5.0 |
9.6 |
Note: (-) – net capital inflow, (+) – net capital outflow
Table 4. Main indicators of the international investment position
|
UM |
31.12. 2012 |
31.12. 2013 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.03. 2016 |
30.06. 2016 |
Q II 2016/ Q I 2016 (%) |
Net international investment position |
US$ million |
-5,085.32 |
-5,346.05 |
-5,598.11 |
-5,653.75 |
-5,752.81 |
-5,805.60 |
100.9 |
Stock of foreign assets / stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
41.1 |
43.0 |
39.9 |
37.1 |
36.6 |
36.0 |
-0.6 p.p. |
Stock of foreign direct investment, liabilities |
US$ million |
3,466.67 |
3,620.97 |
3,613.78 |
3,466.07 |
3,490.40 |
3,501.26 |
100.3 |
Share of foreign direct investment in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
40.1 |
38.6 |
38.8 |
38.6 |
38.5 |
38.6 |
0.2 p.p. |
Share of loans (without intercompany loans) in the stock of foreign liabilities |
% |
35.0 |
34.5 |
32.9 |
32.7 |
32.5 |
32.4 |
-0.1 p.p. |
Stock of reserve assets |
US$ million |
2,515.00 |
2,820.63 |
2,156.63 |
1,756.81 |
1,746.33 |
1,874.60 |
107.3 |
Stock of reserve assets / Average monthly imports of goods and services (for 12 months) |
months |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
108.0 |
Table 5. Main indicators of the external debt (BPM6)
|
UM |
31.12. 2012 |
31.12. 2013 |
31.12. 2014 |
31.12. 2015 |
31.03. 2016 |
30.06. 2016 |
Q II 2016/ Q I 2016 (%) |
Gross external debt |
US$ million |
6,019.84 |
6,674.38 |
6,570.26 |
6,345.43 |
6,407.99 |
6,389.72 |
99.7 |
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt |
US$ million |
1,762.57 |
1,774.93 |
1,731.05 |
1,702.04 |
1,708.97 |
1,704.99 |
99.8 |
Long-term external debt |
US$ million |
4,698.20 |
5,003.79 |
5,012.32 |
4,909.52 |
4,934.76 |
4,894.53 |
99.2 |
Share of public and publicly guaranteed external debt in gross external debt |
% |
29.3 |
26.6 |
26.3 |
26.8 |
26.7 |
26.7 |
|
Share of long-term external debt in gross external debt |
% |
78.0 |
75.0 |
76.3 |
77.4 |
77.0 |
76.6 |
-0.4 p.p. |
Share of international organizations and foreign governments (creditors) in the external debt in the form of loans and SDR allocations |
% |
48.0 |
44.9 |
43.7 |
43.0 |
42.9 |
42.6 |
-0.3 p.p. |
Official reserve assets / Short-term external debt |
% |
190.3 |
168.8 |
138.4 |
122.3 |
118.5 |
125.4 |
6.9 p.p. |
Balance of payments for Q II 2016 (preliminary data)
International investment position at the end of Q II 2016 (preliminary data)
External debt at the end of Q II 2016 (preliminary data)
Time series on balance of payments according to BPM5 are available starting from 1995, according to BPM6 – from 2009, international investment position (BPM5) – from 1998, external debt (BPM5) – from 2001, external debt (BPM6) – from 2009: